2018 YTD: A Wild Ride for San Francisco Real Estate

Hello Friends! I hope you are enjoying this holiday week. Daniel, Tusker and I headed up to visit my parents in Oroville to spend time hiking and swimming in Lake Oroville. Many, many of our childhood summers were spent on this lake! I had prepared sparklers to be sent off to all of my clients to celebrate the 4th, only to learn that, in fact, mailing sparklers is a federal offense! Noted.

In any event, we are halfway through the year and, this midyear report is one of my most-anticipated newsletters. It really puts into perspective what these past six months have been like in the Bay Area...and the numbers don't lie! The heat of the San Francisco market in the first half of 2018 has been among the most blistering ever. The market is particularly competitive in the lower and middle-price segments of house sales. However, we are heading into what is typically the first major price-reduction time of the year in advance of the usual summer slowdown. The second spike in price reductions comes in late October and early November. So, by many parameters, it's a great time to buy! If you or anyone you know wants to chat about the market, or about buying and selling, it’s never too early and I'd love an introduction.

Read on for more, and enjoy!
Jennifer

Paragon Newsletter
Paragon Real Estate Group

2018 YTD: A Wild Ride
for San Francisco Real Estate

Mid-Year 2018 Report

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By any measure, the heat of the San Francisco market in the first half of 2018 has been among the most blistering ever. Probably only 3 or 4 other periods over the past 50 years have seen a comparable intensity of buyer demand vis a vis the supply of listing inventory available to purchase. This despite both significant increases in interest rates and changes in federal tax law severely limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and property tax costs. As mentioned before, the market is particularly ferocious in the lower and middle-price segments of house sales.


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Annual Dollar Value Appreciation

Appreciation is typically viewed through the lens of percentage changes, but looking at the actual increase in dollars paid for a median priced home is perhaps more visceral. These two charts below measure dollar increases in annual median sales prices for houses and then condos. The last columns in each chart measure 2018 YTD median sales price increases against the 2017 median sales price. (The links illustrate the traditional percentage changes.)

Comparing the first half of 2018 to 2017, the median house sales price in San Francisco increased by an astounding $205,000 (per sales reported by 7/3/18). For condos, the increase was also very substantial, at about $71,000.





Link to PERCENTAGE rate appreciation chart: SF houses



Link to PERCENTAGE rate appreciation chart: SF condos



It is not a given that the second half of the year will see home price appreciation at similar rates: Prices could increase further, or they might plateau or even tick down instead. (As can be seen above, home prices can go down as well as up, though longer term trends have always been positive.) For the last 7 years, spring has typically been the most feverish selling season of the year and has often provided most of the appreciation occurring in the full year.





Median sales prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair
market value, such as changes in inventory, new home sales or luxury home sales.

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San Francisco Home Price Map

We just updated our interactive map of median house and condo sales prices for the 70-odd San Francisco neighborhoods, reflecting the last 12 months sales reported to MLS. It can be accessed by clicking on this link: What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco.


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Market Dynamics Statistics

The decline in new listings, especially of houses, has been
a critical factor in the upward pressure on prices.




As houses have become the scarce resource in the SF market,
overbidding percentages have gone into the stratosphere (though
strategic underpricing has also played a role).

San Francisco Real Estate Overbidding


New lows in average days-on-market since the 2012 recovery began:
Listings have been snapped up faster than at any time in the past 7 years.




Market activity typically starts slowing significantly in July
before spiking up again in the short autumn selling season.



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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales
as reported to MLS

The second quarter of 2018 saw the highest quarterly number of SF homes selling for $2 million and above: When late-reported sales are entered into MLS, we expect the total to be over 320 for the 3-month period, far exceeding the previous high of 267 sales in Q2 2017. However, looking at higher-priced sales of $3m+, Q2 2018 is just a handful of transactions ahead of the Q2 2015 total of 97.








The luxury home market is even more intensely seasonal
in its dynamics than the general market.


Luxury condo sales in San Francisco hit a new high in May 2018.
(Sales reported to MLS: new project sales would increase these numbers.)




For the last few years, luxury house sales have more often peaked in October.



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Neighborhood Home Prices & Trends

Below are a few of the many new charts and tables from our updated report on neighborhood sales and values (What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco).



Home Price Tables by Bedroom Count







SF 3 bedroom condo prices

SF 2-unit building prices


Where Best to Look in Your Price Range






District Overview Appreciation Trends

Median sales price appreciation in the four biggest districts
for house sales by quantity of sales.
(Note: districts contain a multitude of neighborhoods.)




Median price appreciation for 2-bedroom condos and co-ops
in the 5 biggest condo-sales districts by number of sales.




If you would like to see home prices or appreciation trends for a city district
or neighborhood not included above, please let us know. We cover them all.

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The San Francisco Building Boom

Approximately 68,000 housing units are now in the SF new construction pipeline. Virtually all of them are apartments or condos: New house construction is minimal in the city, and has been so for over 50 years. Condos, new and resale, are now the dominant property type in market sales volume.

Just because a project is in the pipeline does not guarantee it will be built as planned. Plans are constantly being added, changed and abandoned. New housing construction is extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions.





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All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

Median sales prices may change as late-reported sales are entered into MLS. Typically, such changes are not material to the overall trends illustrated.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

No one knows San Francisco Bay Area real estate better than Paragon.